Troy @ Arkansas State, Week 13 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·TROY radioTroy Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Troy a 50% chance.
SeriesArkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State won the last meeting, 23–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge ARST
Model projection ARST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Troy @ Arkansas State
Your sims:Sims: TROY 0, ARST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Arkansas State
Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Wvs Missouri State34–28Wat App State30–29Lvs Louisiana34–30Arkansas State2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Troy vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonTroy vs ARST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TroyTROY | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 23.5#95 | PPG | 25.2#87 |
| 23.9#58 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 307.2#124 | YDS/G | 383.3#74 |
| 209.2#90 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 98#131 | RUSH/G | 123.5#108 |
| 4.6#129 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 38.8%#80 | 3RD DOWN | 39.3%#74 |
| 0.08#113 | OFF PPA | 0.09#110 |
| 0.11#50 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 37.9%#117 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.9%#75 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.6%#97 |
| 35.3% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.30#40 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#121 |
| +0#72 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -8.0 | SP+ | -11.6 |
| -7.4#95 | FPI | -9.2#107 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Centennial Bank StadiumLocationJonesboro, AR
Capacity30,382
SurfaceTurf
Opened1974
Elevation294 ft
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