UC Davis at SMU: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

ACC · Week 1

AKR @ WAKEThu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM EDTACC Network COLO @ GTThu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM EDTESPN MIA @ STANFri, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM PDTESPN UNH @ SYRSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTACC Network M-OH @ PITTSat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDTThe CW TULN @ DUKESat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTACC Network BC @ CINSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTFOX VMI @ VTSat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM EDTACC Network CLEM @ LSUSat, Sep 5 · 6:30 PM CDTABC UCLA @ CALSat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM PDTESPN LOU vs MISSSun, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM CDTABC

All scores

UCD@#19

GAME DAY

Week 2 · Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM CDT3:00 PM CDT

UC DavisUCD–

SMUSMU0–0·ACC

StreamingACC Extra / ACCNX

SMU radioSMU Sports Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Our model gives SMU a 99% chance.

SeriesFirst meeting

WIN PROBABILITY

SMU 99% UCD 1%

PROJECTED FINAL

SMU

UC Davis

SMU win
99% One-score game
1%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (SP+) SMU

Home-field edge SMU

Model projection SMU

Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.

UC Davis @ SMU

Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, UCD 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

SMU

2025: 9–4 (6–2 ACC)

Wvs Arizona24–19 Lat California38–35 Wvs Louisville38–6

UC Davis2025: 1–1

Wvs Sacramento State31–27 Lat Washington70–10

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

SMU93%
UC Davis8%

CFB Vibes ModelSMU 99%MarketSMU 93%

Market 6 points lower than our model

Kalshi · $2,567 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.

SMU vs UC Davis Stats ComparisonSMU vs UC Davis Stats Comparison

2025 stats

SMUSMU		UC DavisUCD
32.2#26	PPG	–
20.5#30	PA/G	–
417#30	YDS/G	–
283.1#14	PASS/G	–
133.9#95	RUSH/G	–
6.3#24	YDS/PLAY	–
40.8%#56	3RD DOWN	–
+9#14	TO MARGIN	–
0.25#22	OFF PPA	–
0.03#11	DEF PPA	–
43.3%#54	OFF SUCCESS	–
39.6%#47	DEF SUCCESS	–
56.9%	RET PROD	–
1.37#10	EXPLOSIVE	–
12.1	SP+	–
11.1#24	FPI	–

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

LocationUniversity Park, TX

Capacity32,000

SurfaceTurf

Opened2000

Elevation556 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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