SMU @ Florida State, Week 1 · 2026
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@GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
SMU opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives SMU a 58% chance.
SeriesSMU leads 1–0 · SMU won the last meeting, 42–16 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) SMU
Home-field edge FSU
Market lean SMU
Model projection SMU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
SMU @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, FSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSMU −3FSU +3
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINESMU −162FSU +136
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
SMU vs Florida State Stats ComparisonSMU vs FSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| SMUSMU | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2#26 | PPG | 33#22 |
| 20.5#30 | PA/G | 22#43 |
| 417#30 | YDS/G | 472.2#6 |
| 283.1#14 | PASS/G | 253.4#40 |
| 133.9#95 | RUSH/G | 218.8#11 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 40.8%#56 | 3RD DOWN | 50.6%#8 |
| 0.25#22 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.03#11 | DEF PPA | 0.15#63 |
| 43.3%#54 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.2%#17 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 56.9% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.37#10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#16 |
| 12.1 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 11.1#24 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
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