UC Davis at SMU: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

BSKY · Week 2

WEB @ COLOSat, Sep 12 · 1:30 PM MDT UNCO @ WYOSat, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM MDT SUU @ CSUSat, Sep 12 · 5:00 PM MDTCBSSN CP @ SJSUSat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM PDT MTST @ NEVSat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM PDTThe CW

All scores

@#17

GAME DAY

Week 2 · Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM CDT3:00 PM CDT

UC DavisUCD–

SMUSMU1–0·ACC

StreamingACC Extra / ACCNX

UCD radioAggie Radio / Sactown Sports

Fubo Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on Fubo ▸

Terms & eligibility

Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

UC Davis opens a 25.5-point underdog. Our model gives UC Davis a 3% chance.

SeriesFirst meeting

WIN PROBABILITY

SMU 97% UCD 3%

PROJECTED FINAL

SMU

UC Davis

UCD win
3% One-score game
8% Cover SMU −25.5
61%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge SMU

Market lean SMU

Model projection SMU

Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.

UC Davis @ SMU

Your sims:Sims: UCD 0, SMU 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

SMU

2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)

Wat Florida State27–24

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

SMU96%
UC Davis5%

CFB Vibes ModelSMU 97%MarketSMU 96%

Model and market agree

Kalshi · $15,316 traded · as of Sep 9, 6:49 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADUCD +25.5SMU −25.5

TOTALOver 58.5Under 58.5

MONEYLINEUCD +1300SMU −2800

DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice

UC Davis vs SMU Stats ComparisonUC Davis vs SMU Stats Comparison

UC DavisUCD		SMUSMU
40	PPG	27
20.5	PA/G	24
455.5	YDS/G	585
296.5	PASS/G	430
159	RUSH/G	155
6.9	YDS/PLAY	8.7
48.0%	3RD DOWN	57.1%
0.24	OFF PPA	0.37
0.04	DEF PPA	0.19
49.6%	OFF SUCCESS	55.2%
39.4%	DEF SUCCESS	37.3%
1.18	EXPLOSIVE	1.29
+2	TO MARGIN	−3
–	RET PROD	56.9%
–	ELO	1728
–	SP+	11.1
–	FPI	12.1#20

THE VENUE

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

LocationUniversity Park, TX

Capacity32,000

SurfaceTurf

Opened2000

Elevation556 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

Write about UC Davis?

Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.

Get Your Blog Featured →