Arizona State @ UCF, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDUCF radioKnights Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives UCF a 52% chance.
SeriesArizona State leads 2–0 · Arizona State won the last meeting, 35–31 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ASU
Home-field edge UCF
Model projection UCF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Arizona State @ UCF
Your sims:Sims: UCF 0, ASU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UCF vs Arizona State Stats ComparisonUCF vs ASU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UCFUCF | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3#90 | PPG | 25.8#81 |
| 23.6#56 | PA/G | 24.5#65 |
| 378.9#76 | YDS/G | 416.6#32 |
| 220.8#75 | PASS/G | 223.7#69 |
| 158.2#67 | RUSH/G | 192.9#27 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 33.9%#117 | 3RD DOWN | 32.6%#125 |
| 0.15#83 | OFF PPA | 0.13#89 |
| 0.11#52 | DEF PPA | 0.10#44 |
| 39.9%#100 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.8%#103 |
| 42.3%#80 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.8%#58 |
| 24.8% | RET PROD | 15.5% |
| 1.37#11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#49 |
| 1.7 | SP+ | 4.9 |
| 2.1#57 | FPI | 4.8#44 |
| −4#98 | TO MARGIN | −6#108 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
FBC Mortgage StadiumLocationOrlando, FL
Capacity44,206
SurfaceGrass
Opened2007
Elevation69 ft
FAN NEWS
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