Auburn @ Mississippi State, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDAUB radioAuburn Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Auburn a 57% chance.
SeriesAuburn leads 63–31–3 · Auburn won the last meeting, 27–13 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) AUB
Home-field edge MSST
Model projection AUB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Auburn @ Mississippi State
Your sims:Sims: AUB 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Stats ComparisonAuburn vs MSST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| AuburnAUB | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.8#74 | PPG | 30.4#42 |
| 20.7#34 | PA/G | 30.2#106 |
| 374#79 | YDS/G | 399.2#56 |
| 197.1#99 | PASS/G | 241.4#54 |
| 176.9#43 | RUSH/G | 157.8#68 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 39.2%#75 | 3RD DOWN | 42.7%#38 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.17#61 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.06#20 | DEF PPA | 0.20#107 |
| 43.5%#51 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.0%#73 |
| 37.4%#21 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.3%#94 |
| 14.4% | RET PROD | 33.9% |
| 1.15#121 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#44 |
| 11.5 | SP+ | 4.8 |
| 12.0#22 | FPI | 4.1#49 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Davis Wade StadiumLocationStarkville, MS
Capacity61,337
SurfaceGrass
Opened1914
Elevation362 ft
FAN NEWS
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