Buffalo @ Ball State, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDBuffaloBUF0–0·MAC
BALL radioCardinal Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Ball State a 31% chance.
SeriesBall State leads 11–3 · Buffalo won the last meeting, 51–48 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BUF
Home-field edge BALL
Model projection BUF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Buffalo @ Ball State
Your sims:Sims: BALL 0, BUF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Ball State vs Buffalo Stats ComparisonBall State vs Buffalo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Ball StateBALL | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 15.8#132 | PPG | 24#93 |
| 29.8#101 | PA/G | 23.5#54 |
| 271.7#134 | YDS/G | 362.2#85 |
| 138#131 | PASS/G | 229#64 |
| 133.7#96 | RUSH/G | 133.2#97 |
| 4.5#133 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#97 |
| 33.5%#119 | 3RD DOWN | 35.8%#103 |
| 0.18#87 | DEF PPA | 0.11#48 |
| 32.5%#136 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.6%#106 |
| 44.7%#113 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.8%#38 |
| 1.32#29 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#114 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -0.00#133 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 5.7% | RET PROD | -0.8% |
| -25.1 | SP+ | -12.7 |
| -17.3#134 | FPI | -10.8#113 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Scheumann StadiumLocationMuncie, IN
Capacity22,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation937 ft
FAN NEWS
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