Florida State @ Alabama, Week 3 · 2026
@#13
GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·AlabamaALA0–0·SEC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 15.5-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 84% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 3–2–1 · Florida State won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge ALA
Market lean ALA
Model projection ALA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida State @ Alabama
Your sims:Sims: ALA 0, FSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADALA −15.5FSU +15.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEALA −600FSU +440
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Alabama vs Florida State Stats ComparisonAlabama vs FSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| AlabamaALA | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5#49 | PPG | 33#22 |
| 19.2#20 | PA/G | 22#43 |
| 367.7#84 | YDS/G | 472.2#6 |
| 263.5#29 | PASS/G | 253.4#40 |
| 104.2#127 | RUSH/G | 218.8#11 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 50.6%#8 |
| 0.21#37 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.07#28 | DEF PPA | 0.15#63 |
| 43.3%#54 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.2%#17 |
| 37.4%#21 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 26.4% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.27#48 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#16 |
| 17.6 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 20.1#8 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| +7#21 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bryant-Denny StadiumLocationTuscaloosa, AL
Capacity101,821
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation230 ft
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