Florida State @ Louisville, Week 6 · 2026
@#24
GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Florida State a 36% chance.
SeriesFlorida State leads 17–5 · Florida State won the last meeting, 16–6 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LOU
Home-field edge LOU
Model projection LOU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Florida State @ Louisville
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, LOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Florida State vs Louisville Stats ComparisonFSU vs Louisville Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida StateFSU | LouisvilleLOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#22 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 22#43 | PA/G | 21.2#38 |
| 472.2#6 | YDS/G | 384.6#72 |
| 253.4#40 | PASS/G | 220.6#76 |
| 218.8#11 | RUSH/G | 164#61 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 50.6%#8 | 3RD DOWN | 35.3%#105 |
| 0.30#14 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.15#63 | DEF PPA | 0.06#20 |
| 47.2%#17 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.1%#37 |
| 40.5%#55 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 40.1% | RET PROD | 34.8% |
| 1.36#16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#97 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | 11.1 |
| 9.3#28 | FPI | 9.5#27 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumLocationLouisville, KY
Capacity60,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1998
Elevation455 ft
FAN NEWS
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