GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Dakota a 59% chance.
SeriesNorth Dakota leads 2–1 since 2021 · Illinois State won the last meeting, 35–13 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) UND
Home-field edge UND
Model projection UND
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Illinois State @ North Dakota
Your sims:Sims: UND 0, ILST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Illinois State
Wvs Indiana State17–10Wat Southern Illinois35–14Lvs South Dakota State31–14
North Dakota
Lat South Dakota26–23 (OT)Wvs South Dakota State21–10Lat Northern Iowa24–17
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Illinois State vs North Dakota Stats ComparisonILST vs North Dakota Stats Comparison
| Illinois StateILST | North DakotaUND | |
|---|---|---|
| 35.1 | PPG | 35.1 |
| 16.2 | PA/G | 25.2 |
| 396.6 | YDS/G | 429.4 |
| 219.6 | PASS/G | 231.9 |
| 177 | RUSH/G | 197.6 |
| 5.6 | YDS/PLAY | 6 |
| 51.9% | 3RD DOWN | 41.4% |
| 0.15 | OFF PPA | 0.12 |
| 47.0% | OFF SUCCESS | 46.2% |
| 38.2% | DEF SUCCESS | 36.3% |
| 1.13 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.12 |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | −7 |
| -0.08 | DEF PPA | 0.03 |
| -11.5 | SRS | -11.3 |
THE VENUE
Alerus CenterLocationGrand Forks, ND
Capacity12,283
SurfaceTurf
Opened2001
Elevation837 ft
FAN NEWS
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