Liberty @ New Mexico State, Week 10 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 29% chance.
SeriesLiberty leads 7–2 · Liberty won the last meeting, 30–27 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Liberty @ New Mexico State
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Stats ComparisonNMSU vs Liberty Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New Mexico StateNMSU | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 27.6#88 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 327.8#115 | YDS/G | 388.5#70 |
| 250.3#45 | PASS/G | 195.5#101 |
| 77.4#136 | RUSH/G | 193#26 |
| 4.8#127 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 40.1%#65 |
| 0.03#128 | OFF PPA | 0.17#67 |
| 0.10#41 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 36.4%#124 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.5%#51 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#92 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -5.3 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -7.7#96 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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