Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State, Week 1 · 2026
MERC@
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·MercyhurstMERC–
StreamingESPN+
NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico State opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico State a 96% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Home-field edge NMSU
Market lean NMSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, MERC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNMSU −28.5MERC +28.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINENMSU −50000MERC +4000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
New Mexico State vs Mercyhurst Stats ComparisonNMSU vs Mercyhurst Stats Comparison
| New Mexico StateNMSU | MercyhurstMERC | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PPG | – |
| 34 | PA/G | – |
| 319 | YDS/G | – |
| 272 | PASS/G | – |
| 47 | RUSH/G | – |
| 4.8 | YDS/PLAY | – |
| 58.8% | 3RD DOWN | – |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | – |
| 0.16 | OFF PPA | – |
| 0.29 | DEF PPA | – |
| 34.3% | OFF SUCCESS | – |
| 44.8% | DEF SUCCESS | – |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | – |
| 1.64 | EXPLOSIVE | – |
| -18.5 | SP+ | – |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | – |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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