Louisville @ North Carolina, Week 11 · 2026
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@GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDLOU radioCardinal Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Louisville a 59% chance.
SeriesLouisville leads 5–3 · Louisville won the last meeting, 47–35 · 2017
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LOU
Home-field edge UNC
Model projection LOU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Louisville @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: LOU 0, UNC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Louisville vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonLouisville vs UNC Stats Comparison
2025 stats| LouisvilleLOU | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 19.2#120 |
| 21.2#38 | PA/G | 24.5#65 |
| 384.6#72 | YDS/G | 289.1#131 |
| 220.6#76 | PASS/G | 183.9#111 |
| 164#61 | RUSH/G | 105.2#123 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| 35.3%#105 | 3RD DOWN | 36.9%#94 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.06#122 |
| 0.06#20 | DEF PPA | 0.15#64 |
| 45.1%#37 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.8%#112 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4%#66 |
| 34.8% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 1.20#97 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| 11.1 | SP+ | 3.5 |
| 9.5#27 | FPI | 4.9#42 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
