Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State, Week 4 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·StreamingESPN+
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 8% chance.
SeriesJacksonville State leads 3–0 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting, 24–21 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MTSU win
8% One-score game
17%
8% One-score game
17%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) JXST
Home-field edge JXST
Model projection JXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville St
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, JXST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat North Dakota State33–7Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State Stats ComparisonMTSU vs JXST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Jacksonville StateJXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 28.1#62 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 25.2#71 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 409.4#41 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 161.8#122 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 247.6#5 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 38.7%#81 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +11#8 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.19#53 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.15#69 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.9%#47 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.0%#77 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 49.5% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#56 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -7.8 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -8.5#101 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
AmFirst StadiumLocationJacksonville, AL
Capacity24,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1947
Elevation650 ft
FAN NEWS
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