New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee, Week 13 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 58% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico State leads 4–3 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 31–24 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NMSU win
58% One-score game
38%
58% One-score game
38%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection NMSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MTSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New Mexico StateNMSU | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 22.4#107 |
| 27.6#88 | PA/G | 30.9#115 |
| 327.8#115 | YDS/G | 371#82 |
| 250.3#45 | PASS/G | 264.9#28 |
| 77.4#136 | RUSH/G | 106.1#121 |
| 4.8#127 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 37.1%#93 |
| 0.03#128 | OFF PPA | 0.14#85 |
| 0.10#41 | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| 36.4%#124 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.2%#70 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -26.5 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -16.1#130 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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