Northern Illinois @ North Dakota State, Week 12 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Northern Illinois a 12% chance.
SeriesNorth Dakota State leads 2–0 · North Dakota State won the last meeting, 28–0 · 1969
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NIU win
12% One-score game
21%
12% One-score game
21%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NDSU
Home-field edge NDSU
Model projection NDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota St
Your sims:Sims: NIU 0, NDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Dakota State
North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)
Wvs Jacksonville State33–7North Dakota State2026: 1–0 (0–0 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State Stats ComparisonNIU vs NDSU Stats Comparison
| Northern IllinoisNIU | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 33 |
| – | PA/G | 7 |
| – | YDS/G | 373 |
| – | PASS/G | 164 |
| – | RUSH/G | 209 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 5.6 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 35.7% |
| – | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.22 |
| – | DEF PPA | -0.32 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 42.0% |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 30.9% |
| 43.7% | RET PROD | – |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10 |
| -17.2 | SP+ | -1.8 |
| -14.5#125 | FPI | -8.3#100 |
THE VENUE
FargodomeLocationFargo, ND
Capacity18,700
SurfaceTurf
Opened1992
Elevation901 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 12 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
