Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word, Week 9 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·StreamingESPN+
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Incarnate Word a 87% chance.
SeriesIncarnate Word leads 5–3 · Incarnate Word won the last meeting, 38–3 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UIW win
87% One-score game
21%
87% One-score game
21%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) UIW
Home-field edge UIW
Model projection UIW
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northwestern St @ Incarnate Word
Your sims:Sims: UIW 0, NWST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Incarnate Word vs Northwestern State Stats ComparisonUIW vs NWST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Incarnate WordUIW | Northwestern StateNWST | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 21.5 |
| – | PA/G | 61 |
| – | YDS/G | 327 |
| – | PASS/G | 192 |
| – | RUSH/G | 135 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 4.7 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 31.2% |
| – | TO MARGIN | −3 |
| – | OFF PPA | -0.04 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.38 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 31.9% |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 43.0% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Gayle and Tom Benson StadiumLocationSan Antonio, TX
Capacity6,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2008
Elevation684 ft
FAN NEWS
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