Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin, Week 12 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·StreamingESPN+
SFA radioSFA Lumberjack Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Stephen F. Austin a 95% chance.
SeriesStephen F. Austin leads 12–7 · Stephen F. Austin won the last meeting, 62–14 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SFA win
95% One-score game
11%
95% One-score game
11%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) SFA
Home-field edge SFA
Model projection SFA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northwestern St @ Stephen F. Austin
Your sims:Sims: SFA 0, NWST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Stephen F. Austin vs Northwestern State Stats ComparisonSFA vs NWST Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Stephen F. AustinSFA | Northwestern StateNWST | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | PPG | 21.5 |
| 17 | PA/G | 61 |
| 436.5 | YDS/G | 327 |
| 240 | PASS/G | 192 |
| 196.5 | RUSH/G | 135 |
| 6 | YDS/PLAY | 4.7 |
| 44.8% | 3RD DOWN | 31.2% |
| 0.16 | DEF PPA | 0.38 |
| 44.5% | OFF SUCCESS | 31.9% |
| 39.1% | DEF SUCCESS | 43.0% |
| 1.16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22 |
| +3 | TO MARGIN | −3 |
| 0.17 | OFF PPA | -0.04 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Homer Bryce StadiumLocationNacogdoches, TX
Capacity14,575
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation295 ft
FAN NEWS
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