Rice @ Fresno State, Week 4 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Fresno State a 86% chance.
SeriesFresno State leads 6–1 · Rice won the last meeting, 30–6 · 2014
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge FRES
Model projection FRES
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Rice @ Fresno State
Your sims:Sims: FRES 0, RICE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs Rice Stats ComparisonFresno State vs Rice Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | RiceRICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 19.1#121 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 32.9#124 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 302.4#126 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 97.6#135 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 204.8#15 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 4.5#133 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 34.0%#116 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.04#126 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | 0.24#120 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 35.6%#128 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.4%#66 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 39.4% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#90 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −4#98 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | -15.3 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | -13.4#122 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Valley Children's StadiumLocationFresno, CA
Capacity41,031
SurfaceTurf
Opened1980
Elevation336 ft
FAN NEWS
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