SMU @ Louisville, Week 3 · 2026
#19
@#24
@#24GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·LouisvilleLOU0–0·ACC
SMU radioSMU Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
SMU opens a 1.5-point underdog. Our model gives SMU a 45% chance.
What's driving the model
Home-field edge LOU
Market lean LOU
Model projection LOU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
SMU @ Louisville
Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, LOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSMU +1.5LOU −1.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINESMU −105LOU −115
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
SMU vs Louisville Stats ComparisonSMU vs Louisville Stats Comparison
2025 stats| SMUSMU | LouisvilleLOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2#26 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 20.5#30 | PA/G | 21.2#38 |
| 417#30 | YDS/G | 384.6#72 |
| 283.1#14 | PASS/G | 220.6#76 |
| 133.9#95 | RUSH/G | 164#61 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 40.8%#56 | 3RD DOWN | 35.3%#105 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.25#22 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.03#11 | DEF PPA | 0.06#20 |
| 43.3%#54 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.1%#37 |
| 39.6%#47 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 56.9% | RET PROD | 34.8% |
| 1.37#10 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#97 |
| 12.1 | SP+ | 11.1 |
| 11.1#24 | FPI | 9.5#27 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumLocationLouisville, KY
Capacity60,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1998
Elevation455 ft
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MORE WEEK 3 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
