Troy @ South Alabama, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDUSA radioJaguar Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Alabama a 44% chance.
SeriesTroy leads 10–4 · Troy won the last meeting, 31–24 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge USA
Model projection TROY
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Troy @ South Alabama
Your sims:Sims: USA 0, TROY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3South Alabama
South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)
Lat Texas State49–26Wvs Southern Miss42–35Wat UL Monroe26–14South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Alabama vs Troy Stats ComparisonUSA vs Troy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South AlabamaUSA | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5#76 | PPG | 23.5#95 |
| 30.4#110 | PA/G | 23.9#58 |
| 382.2#75 | YDS/G | 307.2#124 |
| 181.1#114 | PASS/G | 209.2#90 |
| 201.2#18 | RUSH/G | 98#131 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 4.6#129 |
| 42.6%#39 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#80 |
| 0.16#74 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 0.24#120 | DEF PPA | 0.11#50 |
| 41.8%#76 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.9%#117 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 78.6% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#40 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -14.6 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -10.5#112 | FPI | -7.4#95 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hancock Whitney StadiumLocationMobile, AL
Capacity25,450
SurfaceTurf
Opened2020
Elevation148 ft
FAN NEWS
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