UC Davis at SMU: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

BSKY · Week 2

WEB @ COLOSat, Sep 12 · 1:30 PM MDT UCD @ SMUSat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM CDT UNCO @ WYOSat, Sep 12 · 2:00 PM MDT SUU @ CSUSat, Sep 12 · 5:00 PM MDTCBSSN CP @ SJSUSat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM PDT MTST @ NEVSat, Sep 12 · 7:30 PM PDTThe CW

All scores

@#17

GAME DAY

Week 2 · Sat, Sep 12 · 3:00 PM CDT3:00 PM CDT

UC DavisUCD–

SMUSMU1–0·ACC

StreamingACC Extra / ACCNX

UCD radioAggie Radio / Sactown Sports

SMU radioSMU Sports Network

Fubo Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on Fubo ▸

Terms & eligibility

Your location determines what plans and channels are available to you.

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

SMU opens a 25.5-point favorite. Our model gives SMU a 97% chance.

SeriesFirst meeting

WIN PROBABILITY

SMU 97% UCD 3%

PROJECTED FINAL

SMU

UC Davis

SMU win
97% One-score game
8% Cover SMU −25.5
61%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge SMU

Market lean SMU

Model projection SMU

Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.

UC Davis @ SMU

Your sims:Sims: SMU 0, UCD 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

SMU

2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)

Wat Florida State27–24

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

SMU96%
UC Davis5%

CFB Vibes ModelSMU 97%MarketSMU 96%

Model and market agree

Kalshi · $15,316 traded · as of Sep 9, 6:49 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADUCD +25.5SMU −25.5

TOTALOver 58.5Under 58.5

MONEYLINEUCD +1300SMU −2800

DraftKings · updated Sep 9, 3:01 PM ETNot gambling advice

UC Davis vs SMU Stats ComparisonUC Davis vs SMU Stats Comparison

UC DavisUCD		SMUSMU
40	PPG	27
20.5	PA/G	24
455.5	YDS/G	585
296.5	PASS/G	430
159	RUSH/G	155
6.9	YDS/PLAY	8.7
48.0%	3RD DOWN	57.1%
0.24	OFF PPA	0.37
0.04	DEF PPA	0.19
49.6%	OFF SUCCESS	55.2%
39.4%	DEF SUCCESS	37.3%
1.18	EXPLOSIVE	1.29
+2	TO MARGIN	−3
–	RET PROD	56.9%
–	ELO	1728
–	SP+	11.1
–	FPI	12.1#20

THE VENUE

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

LocationUniversity Park, TX

Capacity32,000

SurfaceTurf

Opened2000

Elevation556 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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