Virginia @ Florida State, Week 5 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDFSU radioSeminole Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Florida State a 62% chance.
SeriesFlorida State leads 15–5 · Virginia won the last meeting, 46–38 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FSU
Home-field edge FSU
Model projection FSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Virginia @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, UVA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Virginia
Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)
Wvs NC State34–8Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Florida State vs Virginia Stats ComparisonFSU vs Virginia Stats Comparison
| Florida StateFSU | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | PPG | 34 |
| 17 | PA/G | 8 |
| 419 | YDS/G | 413 |
| 202 | PASS/G | 155 |
| 217 | RUSH/G | 258 |
| 6.3 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1 |
| 57.1% | 3RD DOWN | 21.4% |
| 0.29 | OFF PPA | 0.27 |
| 44.8% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.9% |
| 34.3% | DEF SUCCESS | 31.4% |
| 40.1% | RET PROD | 9.5% |
| 1.32 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.06 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | 8.1 |
| 9.3#28 | FPI | 7.9#32 |
| +0 | TO MARGIN | +2 |
| 0.16 | DEF PPA | -0.14 |
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
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