Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee, Week 10 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 10 · ·MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 18% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 12–6 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 42–26 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
MTSU win
18% One-score game
27%
18% One-score game
27%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) WKU
Home-field edge MTSU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)
Wvs Southern Miss27–16Lat Jacksonville State37–34Lat LSU13–10Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky Stats ComparisonMTSU vs WKU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 22.8#47 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 406.8#45 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 272.2#22 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 134.6#94 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 45.9%#24 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.17#70 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.10#39 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.4%#53 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 83.7% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#95 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -7.3 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -4.9#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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