Alcorn State at Southern Miss: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

SBC · Week 1

NCAT @ GASTFri, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM EDT LIB @ JMUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTESPNU CCU @ WVUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTTNT ME @ APPSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDT MRSH @ PSUSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTFS1 ALCN @ USMSat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM CDT SHSU @ TROYSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT SELA @ USASat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT CHSO @ GASOSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM EDT ARST @ MEMSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT ULM @ MSSTSat, Sep 5 · 6:30 PM CDTESPNU NWST @ LTSat, Sep 5 · 6:30 PM CDT LAM @ ULSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM CDT

All scores

ALCN@

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 4:00 PM CDT4:00 PM CDT

Alcorn StateALCN–

Southern MissUSM0–0·SBC

StreamingESPN+

USM radioSouthern Miss Radio Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Southern Miss opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Southern Miss a 90% chance.

SeriesSouthern Miss leads 4–0 · Southern Miss won the last meeting, 40–14 · 2023

WIN PROBABILITY

USM 90% ALCN 10%

PROJECTED FINAL

Southern Miss

Alcorn State

USM win
90% One-score game
19%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge USM

Market lean USM

Model projection USM

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Alcorn State @ Southern Miss

Your sims:Sims: USM 0, ALCN 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

Alcorn State2025: 0–1

Lat Mississippi State63–0

Southern Miss

2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)

Lvs Western Kentucky27–16 Lvs Troy28–18 Lat South Alabama42–35

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADALCN +20.5USM −20.5

TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5

MONEYLINEALCN +750USM −1200

DraftKings · updated Sep 2, 12:32 AM ETNot gambling advice

Alcorn State vs Southern Miss Stats ComparisonAlcorn State vs USM Stats Comparison

2025 stats

Alcorn StateALCN		Southern MissUSM
–	PPG	28.8#58
–	PA/G	27.4#84
–	YDS/G	401.8#54
–	PASS/G	266#26
–	RUSH/G	135.8#93
–	YDS/PLAY	5.7#65
–	3RD DOWN	39.7%#70
–	TO MARGIN	+14#4
–	OFF PPA	0.16#71
–	DEF PPA	0.12#54
–	OFF SUCCESS	39.5%#107
–	DEF SUCCESS	41.5%#68
–	RET PROD	90.2%
–	EXPLOSIVE	1.33#25
–	SP+	-20.7
–	FPI	-5.1#87

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

M. M. Roberts Stadium

LocationHattiesburg, MS

Capacity36,000

SurfaceTurf

Opened1932

Elevation212 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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