Boston College @ Cincinnati, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Cincinnati opens a 7.5-point favorite. Our model gives Cincinnati a 72% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 4–4 · Cincinnati won the last meeting, 38–6 · 2019
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
CIN win
72% One-score game
35% Cover CIN −7.5
55%
72% One-score game
35% Cover CIN −7.5
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) CIN
Home-field edge CIN
Market lean CIN
Model projection CIN
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Boston College @ Cincinnati
Your sims:Sims: CIN 0, BC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Cincinnati72%
Boston College28%
CFB Vibes ModelCIN 72%MarketCIN 72%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $4,361 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADBC +7.5CIN −7.5
TOTALOver 49.5Under 49.5
MONEYLINEBC +240CIN −298
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Boston College vs Cincinnati Stats ComparisonBC vs Cincinnati Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Boston CollegeBC | CincinnatiCIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.4#85 | PPG | 30.3#43 |
| 32.8#123 | PA/G | 25.6#74 |
| 384.2#73 | YDS/G | 407.6#43 |
| 280.2#15 | PASS/G | 230.2#62 |
| 104#128 | RUSH/G | 177.5#42 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 6.9#8 |
| 39.0%#77 | 3RD DOWN | 38.7%#81 |
| 0.16#72 | OFF PPA | 0.30#15 |
| 0.23#116 | DEF PPA | 0.19#93 |
| 43.0%#60 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.8%#20 |
| 42.9%#91 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.9%#101 |
| 15.6% | RET PROD | 8.3% |
| 1.21#85 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32#30 |
| −9#120 | TO MARGIN | −4#98 |
| -2.5 | SP+ | 3.0 |
| -2.7#78 | FPI | 4.4#46 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Nippert StadiumLocationCincinnati, OH
Capacity40,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1915
Elevation755 ft
FAN NEWS
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