GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Stephen F. Austin a 96% chance.
SeriesStephen F. Austin leads 6–1 since 2014 · Stephen F. Austin won the last meeting, 50–3 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SFA win
96% One-score game
11%
96% One-score game
11%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) SFA
Home-field edge SFA
Model projection SFA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Houston Christian @ Stephen F. Austin
Your sims:Sims: SFA 0, HCU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Stephen F. Austin
Wvs SE Louisiana45–24Wat Nicholls56–0Wvs Incarnate Word28–26
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelSFA 96%MarketSFA 92%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $240 traded · as of Oct 24, 10:20 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Houston Christian vs Stephen F. Austin Stats ComparisonHCU vs SFA Stats Comparison
| Houston ChristianHCU | Stephen F. AustinSFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.9 | PPG | 41.4 |
| 26.6 | PA/G | 14.4 |
| 322.5 | YDS/G | 483.5 |
| 177.2 | PASS/G | 256.6 |
| 145.2 | RUSH/G | 226.9 |
| 5.1 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2 |
| 35.1% | 3RD DOWN | 44.9% |
| +5 | TO MARGIN | +3 |
| 35.6% | OFF SUCCESS | 47.7% |
| 43.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 34.5% |
| 1.30 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.34 |
| -0.01 | OFF PPA | 0.32 |
| 0.06 | DEF PPA | -0.09 |
| -33.9 | SRS | -10.3 |
THE VENUE
Homer Bryce StadiumLocationNacogdoches, TX
Capacity14,575
SurfaceTurf
Opened1973
Elevation295 ft
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