Louisville @ North Carolina, Week 11 · 2026
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@GAME DAY
Week 11 · TBDUNC radioTar Heel Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Carolina a 41% chance.
SeriesLouisville leads 5–3 · Louisville won the last meeting, 47–35 · 2017
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LOU
Home-field edge UNC
Model projection LOU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Louisville @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: UNC 0, LOU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Carolina vs Louisville Stats ComparisonUNC vs Louisville Stats Comparison
2025 stats| North CarolinaUNC | LouisvilleLOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 19.2#120 | PPG | 29.9#46 |
| 24.5#65 | PA/G | 21.2#38 |
| 289.1#131 | YDS/G | 384.6#72 |
| 183.9#111 | PASS/G | 220.6#76 |
| 105.2#123 | RUSH/G | 164#61 |
| 4.9#120 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 36.9%#94 | 3RD DOWN | 35.3%#105 |
| 0.06#122 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.15#64 | DEF PPA | 0.06#20 |
| 38.8%#112 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.1%#37 |
| 41.4%#66 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 27.8% | RET PROD | 34.8% |
| 1.16#116 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#97 |
| 3.5 | SP+ | 11.1 |
| 4.9#42 | FPI | 9.5#27 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 11 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
