Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction · CFB Vibes

MAC · Week 1

MASS @ RUTGThu, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM EDTBTN UALB @ BUFThu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM EDT SJSU @ EMUFri, Sep 4 · 6:30 PM EDT TOL @ MSUFri, Sep 4 · 8:00 PM EDTFS1 TAR @ BGSUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT OHIO @ NEBSat, Sep 5 · 11:00 AM CDTFS1 M-OH @ PITTSat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDTThe CW BALL @ OSUSat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDTBTN KENT @ SCSat, Sep 5 · 12:45 PM EDTSEC Network WMU @ MICHSat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM EDTNBC CMU @ UNMSat, Sep 5 · 8:00 PM MDTFS1 MVSU @ SACSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM PDT

Miami (OH)

@

Pittsburgh

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDT12:30 PM EDT

Miami (OH)M-OH0–0·MAC

PittsburghPITT0–0·ACC

StreamingCW App

M-OH radioRedHawk Radio Network

PITT radioPanthers Radio Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Pittsburgh opens a 16.5-point favorite. Our model gives Pittsburgh a 88% chance.

SeriesPittsburgh leads 2–0 · Pittsburgh won the last meeting, 35–26 · 1949

WIN PROBABILITY

PITT 88% M-OH 12%

PROJECTED FINAL

34

15

PITT win
88% One-score game
21% Cover PITT −16.5
56%

What's driving the model

Ratings edge (Elo) PITT

Home-field edge PITT

Market lean PITT

Model projection PITT

Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.

Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh

Your sims:Sims: PITT 0, M-OH 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

2025: 7–7 (6–2 MAC)

Lvs Fresno State18–3 Lvs Western Michigan23–13 Wvs Ball State45–24

2025: 8–5 (6–2 ACC)

Lvs East Carolina23–17 Lvs Miami38–7 Wat Georgia Tech42–28

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

Pittsburgh88%
Miami (OH)14%

CFB Vibes ModelPITT 88%MarketPITT 88%

Model and market agree

Kalshi · $12,192 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADM-OH +16.5PITT −16.5

TOTALOver 48.5Under 48.5

MONEYLINEM-OH +575PITT −850

DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice

Miami (OH) vs Pittsburgh Stats ComparisonMiami (OH) vs Pittsburgh Stats Comparison

2025 stats

Miami (OH)M-OH		PittsburghPITT
23.5#95	PPG	33.7#20
21.7#41	PA/G	24.8#68
338.1#108	YDS/G	391.2#67
187.3#106	PASS/G	273.5#20
150.8#78	RUSH/G	117.7#116
5.5#81	YDS/PLAY	5.7#65
34.7%#109	3RD DOWN	33.3%#120
0.10#104	OFF PPA	0.17#61
0.09#34	DEF PPA	0.07#27
39.4%#109	OFF SUCCESS	40.3%#98
39.3%#44	DEF SUCCESS	35.6%#11
13.9%	RET PROD	39.7%
1.21#93	EXPLOSIVE	1.34#19
+5#35	TO MARGIN	−2#81
-4.0	SP+	6.2
-7.0#94	FPI	6.6#36

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Acrisure Stadium

LocationPittsburgh, PA

Capacity68,400

SurfaceGrass

Opened2001

Elevation724 ft

FAN NEWS

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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES

TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME

#24

Louisville

VS#9

Ole Miss

Sun, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELMISS 67% to win

Ball State

@#1

Ohio State

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELOSU 99% to win

Boise State

@#2

Oregon

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:30 PM PDT

CFB VIBES MODELORE 94% to win

TNST@#3

Georgia

Sat, Sep 5 · 3:00 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELUGA 99% to win

Wisconsin

VS#4

Notre Dame

Sun, Sep 6 · 6:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELND 90% to win

Texas State

@#5

Texas

Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT

CFB VIBES MODELTEX 97% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →

North Texas

@#6

Indiana

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDT

CFB VIBES MODELIU 99% to win

#7

Miami

@

Stanford

Fri, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM PDT

CFB VIBES MODELMIA 94% to win

ESPNSIM NOW →