Middle Tennessee @ Liberty, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 6% chance.
SeriesLiberty leads 3–0 · Liberty won the last meeting, 37–17 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge LIB
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Liberty
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Liberty
Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)
Lvs Kennesaw State48–42 (OT)Lat Louisiana Tech34–28 (OT)Lat Florida International34–27 (OT)Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty Stats ComparisonMTSU vs Liberty Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 388.5#70 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 195.5#101 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 193#26 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 40.1%#65 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.17#67 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.5%#51 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#92 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -5.3 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -7.7#96 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Williams Stadium (VA)LocationLynchburg, VA
Capacity25,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1989
Elevation895 ft
FAN NEWS
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