Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston, Week 12 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·SHSU radioBearkat Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Sam Houston a 59% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SHSU
Home-field edge SHSU
Model projection SHSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston
Your sims:Sims: SHSU 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Sam Houston
Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)
Lvs Florida International56–16Lat Middle Tennessee31–17Wvs Delaware26–23Sam Houston2025: 2–10 (1–7 CUSA)Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Sam Houston vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonSam Houston vs MTSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Sam HoustonSHSU | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8#127 | PPG | 22.4#107 |
| 37.8#133 | PA/G | 30.9#115 |
| 316.8#121 | YDS/G | 371#82 |
| 184#110 | PASS/G | 264.9#28 |
| 132.8#98 | RUSH/G | 106.1#121 |
| 5#117 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 22.2%#136 | 3RD DOWN | 37.1%#93 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.00#132 | OFF PPA | 0.14#85 |
| 0.24#118 | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| 36.3%#125 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.2%#70 |
| 47.9%#130 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| 57.7% | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| -26.0 | SP+ | -26.5 |
| -18.4#136 | FPI | -16.1#130 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Elliott T. Bowers StadiumLocationHuntsville, TX
Capacity14,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1986
Elevation419 ft
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