Missouri State @ Western Kentucky, Week 6 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 6 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 17% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 5–0 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 27–22 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) WKU
Home-field edge WKU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Missouri St @ Western Kentucky
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)
Wvs Southern Miss27–16Lat Jacksonville State37–34Lat LSU13–10Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Stats ComparisonMOST vs WKU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Missouri StateMOST | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 28.8#91 | PA/G | 22.8#47 |
| 393.4#64 | YDS/G | 406.8#45 |
| 279.7#16 | PASS/G | 272.2#22 |
| 113.7#118 | RUSH/G | 134.6#94 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#55 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 45.9%#24 |
| 0.17#66 | OFF PPA | 0.17#70 |
| 0.24#122 | DEF PPA | 0.10#39 |
| 39.3%#110 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.4%#53 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 83.7% |
| 1.49#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#95 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -19.1 | SP+ | -7.3 |
| -10.3#110 | FPI | -4.9#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumLocationBowling Green, KY
Capacity22,113
SurfaceTurf
Opened1968
Elevation507 ft
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