Missouri State @ Texas A&M, Week 1 · 2026
@#8
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Missouri State opens a 40.5-point underdog. Our model gives Missouri State a 1% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TA&M
Home-field edge TA&M
Market lean TA&M
Model projection TA&M
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Missouri State @ Texas A&M
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, TA&M 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMOST +40.5TA&M −40.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Missouri State vs Texas A&M Stats ComparisonMOST vs Texas A&M Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Missouri StateMOST | Texas A&MTA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 33.8#19 |
| 28.8#91 | PA/G | 21#36 |
| 393.4#64 | YDS/G | 444.8#23 |
| 279.7#16 | PASS/G | 259.8#32 |
| 113.7#118 | RUSH/G | 185#30 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 6.4#22 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 40.8%#56 |
| 0.17#66 | OFF PPA | 0.23#29 |
| 0.24#122 | DEF PPA | 0.12#55 |
| 39.3%#110 | OFF SUCCESS | 45.5%#32 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.8%#5 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 72.8% |
| 1.49#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.23#70 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −9#120 |
| -19.1 | SP+ | 20.9 |
| -10.3#110 | FPI | 20.0#11 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kyle FieldLocationCollege Station, TX
Capacity102,733
SurfaceGrass
Opened1927
Elevation357 ft
FAN NEWS
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