Murray State at Middle Tennessee: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

CUSA · Week 1

WGA @ KENNThu, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM EDT LIB @ JMUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTESPNU SHSU @ TROYSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT FIU @ USFSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM EDT EKU @ JXSTSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT MOST @ TA&MSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDTESPN MUR @ MTSUSat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT MERC @ NMSUSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM MDT WKU @ NEVSat, Sep 5 · 7:30 PM PDTCBSSN

All scores

MUR@

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT6:00 PM CDT

Murray StateMUR–

Middle TennesseeMTSU0–0·CUSA

StreamingESPN+

MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

Middle Tennessee opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 90% chance.

SeriesMiddle Tennessee leads 2–0 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 35–14 · 2023

WIN PROBABILITY

MTSU 90% MUR 10%

PROJECTED FINAL

Middle Tennessee

Murray State

MTSU win
90% One-score game
20%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge MTSU

Market lean MTSU

Model projection MTSU

Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.

Murray State @ Middle Tennessee

Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, MUR 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

Murray State2025: 0–2

Lat Jacksonville State45–10 Lat Georgia State37–21

Middle Tennessee

2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)

Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17 Lat Western Kentucky42–26

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADMUR +20.5MTSU −20.5

TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5

MONEYLINEMUR +1100MTSU −2100

DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice

Murray State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonMurray State vs MTSU Stats Comparison

2025 stats

Murray StateMUR		Middle TennesseeMTSU
–	PPG	22.4#107
–	PA/G	30.9#115
–	YDS/G	371#82
–	PASS/G	264.9#28
–	RUSH/G	106.1#121
–	YDS/PLAY	5.5#81
–	3RD DOWN	37.1%#93
–	TO MARGIN	+2#54
–	OFF PPA	0.14#85
–	DEF PPA	0.21#111
–	OFF SUCCESS	42.2%#70
–	DEF SUCCESS	44.1%#104
–	RET PROD	32.5%
–	EXPLOSIVE	1.22#78
–	SP+	-26.5
–	FPI	-16.1#130

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

LocationMurfreesboro, TN

Capacity30,788

SurfaceTurf

Opened1933

Elevation629 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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