NC State @ North Carolina, Week 13 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 13 · TBDNCSU radioWolfpack Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
NC State opens a 1.5-point favorite. Our model gives NC State a 54% chance.
SeriesNorth Carolina leads 60–41–5 · NC State won the last meeting, 42–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NCSU
Home-field edge UNC
Market lean NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
NC State @ North Carolina
Your sims:Sims: NCSU 0, UNC 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3NC State
NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)
Lat Virginia34–8NC State2026: 0–1 (0–1 ACC)North Carolina
North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs TCU15–10North Carolina2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNCSU −1.5UNC +1.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINENCSU −118UNC −102
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
NC State vs North Carolina Stats ComparisonNC State vs UNC Stats Comparison
| NC StateNCSU | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | PPG | 15 |
| 34 | PA/G | 10 |
| 168 | YDS/G | 322 |
| 92 | PASS/G | 232 |
| 76 | RUSH/G | 90 |
| 3.3 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6 |
| 30.8% | 3RD DOWN | 27.3% |
| 31.4% | OFF SUCCESS | 46.6% |
| 47.9% | DEF SUCCESS | 33.3% |
| 59.9% | RET PROD | 27.8% |
| 0.53 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.92 |
| 5.7 | SP+ | 3.5 |
| 3.7#51 | FPI | 4.9#42 |
| −2 | TO MARGIN | −1 |
| -0.14 | OFF PPA | 0.11 |
| 0.27 | DEF PPA | -0.05 |
THE VENUE
Kenan StadiumLocationChapel Hill, NC
Capacity50,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened1927
Elevation419 ft
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