New Mexico State @ Missouri State, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·NMSU radioAggie Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico State a 43% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 24–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) NMSU
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection MOST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico St @ Missouri St
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, MOST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State Stats ComparisonNMSU vs MOST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New Mexico StateNMSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 27.6#88 | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| 327.8#115 | YDS/G | 393.4#64 |
| 250.3#45 | PASS/G | 279.7#16 |
| 77.4#136 | RUSH/G | 113.7#118 |
| 4.8#127 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 41.7%#45 | 3RD DOWN | 36.3%#101 |
| 0.03#128 | OFF PPA | 0.17#66 |
| 0.10#41 | DEF PPA | 0.24#122 |
| 36.4%#124 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3%#110 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 24.4% | RET PROD | 31.3% |
| 1.25#58 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.49#2 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
| -18.5 | SP+ | -19.1 |
| -15.7#129 | FPI | -10.3#110 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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