Northern Arizona @ Arizona, Week 1 · 2026
NAU@
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Northern ArizonaNAU–
ArizonaARIZ0–0·B12
StreamingESPN+
ARIZ radioWildcat Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Arizona opens a 31.5-point favorite. Our model gives Arizona a 99% chance.
SeriesArizona leads 16–2 · Arizona won the last meeting, 22–10 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Northern Arizona
12
ARIZ win
99% One-score game
4% Cover ARIZ −31.5
63%
99% One-score game
4% Cover ARIZ −31.5
63%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge ARIZ
Market lean ARIZ
Model projection ARIZ
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Northern Arizona @ Arizona
Your sims:Sims: ARIZ 0, NAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northern ArizonaNorthern Arizona2025: 0–1
Lat Arizona State38–19Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Arizona98%- Northern Arizona3%
CFB Vibes ModelARIZ 99%MarketARIZ 98%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $15,089 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADARIZ −31.5NAU +31.5
TOTALOver 58.5Under 58.5
MONEYLINEARIZ −8000NAU +2200
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Arizona vs Northern Arizona Stats ComparisonArizona vs NAU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| ArizonaARIZ | Northern ArizonaNAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5#30 | PPG | – |
| 19.3#21 | PA/G | – |
| 407.9#42 | YDS/G | – |
| 255.2#36 | PASS/G | – |
| 152.7#75 | RUSH/G | – |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | – |
| 41.0%#53 | 3RD DOWN | – |
| +18#2 | TO MARGIN | – |
| 0.17#67 | OFF PPA | – |
| 0.07#25 | DEF PPA | – |
| 42.6%#66 | OFF SUCCESS | – |
| 37.9%#27 | DEF SUCCESS | – |
| 64.9% | RET PROD | – |
| 1.26#51 | EXPLOSIVE | – |
| 9.5 | SP+ | – |
| 7.2#34 | FPI | – |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Arizona StadiumLocationTucson, AZ
Capacity50,782
SurfaceTurf
Opened1928
Elevation2,435 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
