San Diego State @ Boise State, Week 12 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·TVUSA Net
BOIS radioBronco Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Boise State a 70% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 6–5 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 17–7 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) BOIS
Home-field edge BOIS
Model projection BOIS
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Boise State
Your sims:Sims: BOIS 0, SDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Boise State vs San Diego State Stats ComparisonBoise State vs SDSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Boise StateBOIS | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 26.4#77 |
| 24.1#61 | PA/G | 15.4#6 |
| 424.3#24 | YDS/G | 356#91 |
| 244.9#51 | PASS/G | 157.9#125 |
| 179.4#38 | RUSH/G | 198.9#19 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 45.8%#26 | 3RD DOWN | 31.4%#130 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| 0.17#60 | OFF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 40.9%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.2%#81 |
| 35.3%#8 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#9 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 98.7% |
| 1.30#36 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.18#106 |
| 5.1 | SP+ | 0.7 |
| 4.0#50 | FPI | 1.4#59 |
| 0.10#42 | DEF PPA | -0.02#3 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Albertsons StadiumLocationBoise, ID
Capacity36,387
SurfaceTurf
Opened1970
Elevation2,701 ft
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