San Diego State @ Toledo, Week 4 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 4 · TBDSDSU radioAztec Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San Diego State a 64% chance.
SeriesSan Diego State leads 1–0 · San Diego State won the last meeting, 17–14 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SDSU
Home-field edge TOL
Model projection SDSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
San Diego State @ Toledo
Your sims:Sims: SDSU 0, TOL 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San Diego State
San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs North Texas49–47Lat New Mexico23–17 (OT)Wvs San José State25–3San Diego State2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
San Diego State vs Toledo Stats ComparisonSDSU vs Toledo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| San Diego StateSDSU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4#77 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 15.4#6 | PA/G | 13.3#4 |
| 356#91 | YDS/G | 415.8#34 |
| 157.9#125 | PASS/G | 238.1#57 |
| 198.9#19 | RUSH/G | 177.7#41 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 31.4%#130 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#64 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.12#95 | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| 41.2%#81 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.6%#43 |
| 35.4%#9 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#4 |
| 98.7% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| 1.18#106 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| -0.02#3 | DEF PPA | -0.08#1 |
| 0.7 | SP+ | -9.1 |
| 1.4#59 | FPI | -3.0#79 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Glass BowlLocationToledo, OH
Capacity26,038
SurfaceTurf
Opened1937
Elevation595 ft
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