South Florida @ Bowling Green, Week 4 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 4 · TBDUSF radioBulls Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Florida a 72% chance.
SeriesSouth Florida leads 1–0 · South Florida won the last meeting, 29–7 · 2002
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USF
Home-field edge BGSU
Model projection USF
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Florida @ Bowling Green
Your sims:Sims: USF 0, BGSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Bowling Green
Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)
Wat Massachusetts45–14Lvs Akron19–16Lat Eastern Michigan27–21Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Florida vs Bowling Green Stats ComparisonUSF vs BGSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South FloridaUSF | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 40.5#5 | PPG | 20.5#117 |
| 23.4#53 | PA/G | 24.2#63 |
| 487.8#3 | YDS/G | 306.8#125 |
| 275.6#18 | PASS/G | 151.2#126 |
| 212.2#13 | RUSH/G | 155.5#71 |
| 7#5 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| 46.4%#20 | 3RD DOWN | 36.7%#98 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.30#17 | OFF PPA | 0.03#129 |
| 0.08#30 | DEF PPA | 0.15#60 |
| 46.7%#22 | OFF SUCCESS | 35.9%#127 |
| 37.9%#27 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 1.30#38 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#68 |
| 12.6% | RET PROD | -6.2% |
| -1.7 | SP+ | -15.0 |
| -0.9#73 | FPI | -13.7#123 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doyt L. Perry StadiumLocationBowling Green, OH
Capacity24,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation676 ft
FAN NEWS
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