Troy @ Utah State, Week 4 · 2026
@
GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·Utah StateUSU0–0·PAC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Utah State a 60% chance.
SeriesTroy leads 2–1 · Troy won the last meeting, 49–21 · 2004
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USU
Home-field edge USU
Model projection USU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Troy @ Utah State
Your sims:Sims: USU 0, TROY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Utah State
Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)
Lvs Washington State34–21Lvs Boise State25–24Wat Fresno State28–17Utah State2025: 6–7 (4–4 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Utah State vs Troy Stats ComparisonUtah State vs Troy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Utah StateUSU | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.9#35 | PPG | 23.5#95 |
| 28.7#90 | PA/G | 23.9#58 |
| 409.8#40 | YDS/G | 307.2#124 |
| 246.9#48 | PASS/G | 209.2#90 |
| 162.9#62 | RUSH/G | 98#131 |
| 6.3#24 | YDS/PLAY | 4.6#129 |
| 34.5%#111 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#80 |
| 0.20#41 | OFF PPA | 0.08#113 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.11#50 |
| 41.1%#83 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.9%#117 |
| 42.7%#90 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.6%#47 |
| 65.2% | RET PROD | 35.3% |
| 1.35#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#40 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -7.9 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -6.7#92 | FPI | -7.4#95 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Maverik StadiumLocationLogan, UT
Capacity25,513
SurfaceTurf
Opened1968
Elevation4,685 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Utah State?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 4 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
