UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA: Time, TV, Odds & Prediction

AAC · Week 1

UAB @ ILLThu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM CDTBTN BRY @ ARMYSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTCBSSN ECU @ ALASat, Sep 5 · 11:00 AM CDTABC UNT @ IUSat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTFOX URI @ TEMSat, Sep 5 · 2:00 PM EDT RGV @ UTSASat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT CIT @ CLTSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDT TULN @ DUKESat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTACC Network TOW @ NAVYSat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM EDTCBSSN OKST @ TLSASat, Sep 5 · 2:45 PM CDTESPNU FIU @ USFSat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM EDT HCU @ RICESat, Sep 5 · 6:00 PM CDT FAU @ FLASat, Sep 5 · 7:45 PM EDTSEC Network

All scores

RGV@

GAME DAY

Week 1 · Sat, Sep 5 · 2:30 PM CDT2:30 PM CDT

UT Rio Grande ValleyRGV–

UTSAUTSA0–0·AAC

StreamingESPN+

UTSA radioRoadrunner Radio Network

CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODEL

10,000 simulations10k Sims

The Read

UTSA opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives UTSA a 98% chance.

SeriesFirst meeting

WIN PROBABILITY

UTSA 98% RGV 2%

PROJECTED FINAL

UTSA

UT Rio Grande Valley

UTSA win
98% One-score game
6% Cover UTSA −28.5
60%

What's driving the model

Home-field edge UTSA

Market lean UTSA

Model projection UTSA

Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.

UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA

Your sims:Sims: UTSA 0, RGV 0

HOW THEY GOT HERE

last 3

UTSA

2025: 7–6 (4–4 AAC)

Wvs Florida International57–20 Lvs Army27–24 Wvs East Carolina58–24

Prediction Market

See All Prediction Markets →All →

Market-implied win probability

UTSA97%
UT Rio Grande Valley5%

CFB Vibes ModelUTSA 98%MarketUTSA 97%

Model and market agree

Kalshi · $67,553 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only

Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.

Betting Lines

See All Betting Odds →All →

SPREADRGV +28.5UTSA −28.5

TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5

MONEYLINERGV +2500UTSA −9000

DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice

UT Rio Grande Valley vs UTSA Stats ComparisonRGV vs UTSA Stats Comparison

2025 stats

UT Rio Grande ValleyRGV		UTSAUTSA
–	PPG	35.5#14
–	PA/G	28.8#91
–	YDS/G	421.3#28
–	PASS/G	247.2#46
–	RUSH/G	174.1#52
–	YDS/PLAY	6.1#31
–	3RD DOWN	39.7%#70
–	TO MARGIN	+6#27
–	OFF PPA	0.20#43
–	DEF PPA	0.14#58
–	OFF SUCCESS	43.9%#47
–	DEF SUCCESS	38.0%#29
–	RET PROD	66.9%
–	EXPLOSIVE	1.32#30
–	SP+	-1.1
–	FPI	-5.3#88

2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.

THE VENUE

Alamodome

LocationSan Antonio, TX

Capacity36,582

SurfaceTurf

Opened1993

Elevation661 ft

FAN NEWS

2026 season

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