GAME DAY
Week 9 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Merrimack a 79% chance.
SeriesMerrimack leads 3–1 since 2013 · Wagner won the last meeting, 30–27 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) MRMK
Home-field edge MRMK
Model projection MRMK
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Wagner @ Merrimack
Your sims:Sims: MRMK 0, WAG 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMRMK 79%MarketMRMK 80%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $13 traded · as of Oct 25, 3:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Wagner vs Merrimack Stats ComparisonWagner vs Merrimack Stats Comparison
| WagnerWAG | MerrimackMRMK | |
|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | PPG | 17.9 |
| 38.8 | PA/G | 28.8 |
| 264.4 | YDS/G | 342.5 |
| 186 | PASS/G | 176.5 |
| 78.4 | RUSH/G | 166 |
| 4.1 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3 |
| 26.5% | 3RD DOWN | 31.7% |
| 0.23 | DEF PPA | 0.06 |
| 31.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 39.3% |
| 44.9% | DEF SUCCESS | 37.1% |
| 1.22 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.06 |
| −3 | TO MARGIN | −10 |
| -0.13 | OFF PPA | -0.01 |
| -50.4 | SRS | -41.6 |
THE VENUE
Duane StadiumLocationNorth Andover, MA
Capacity3,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2017
Elevation207 ft
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