Wisconsin vs Notre Dame, Week 1 · 2026
VS#4
GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Wisconsin opens a 20.5-point underdog in Greenbay. Our model gives Wisconsin a 6% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 9–6–2 · Notre Dame won the last meeting, 41–13 · 2021
6% One-score game
14% Cover ND −20.5
59%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: WIS 0, ND 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Notre Dame93%
Wisconsin8%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $137,385 traded · as of Sep 1, 11:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Stats ComparisonWisconsin vs Notre Dame Stats Comparison
2025 stats| WisconsinWIS | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| 12.8#135 | PPG | 42#2 |
| 21.6#39 | PA/G | 17.6#10 |
| 254.8#135 | YDS/G | 459.5#12 |
| 136.4#132 | PASS/G | 255.1#37 |
| 118.3#115 | RUSH/G | 204.4#17 |
| 4.4#135 | YDS/PLAY | 7.5#1 |
| 32.3%#126 | 3RD DOWN | 48.1%#13 |
| 0.02#130 | OFF PPA | 0.33#6 |
| 0.17#82 | DEF PPA | 0.02#9 |
| 36.6%#122 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.3%#24 |
| 44.8%#115 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.3%#14 |
| 31.0% | RET PROD | 51.2% |
| 1.20#102 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.50#1 |
| 3.8 | SP+ | 26.5 |
| 4.8#43 | FPI | 25.9#3 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | +13#7 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
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