Central Michigan @ New Mexico, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico opens a 10-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico a 74% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNM
Home-field edge UNM
Market lean UNM
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Central Michigan @ New Mexico
Your sims:Sims: UNM 0, CMU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Central Michigan
Central Michigan2025: 7–6 (5–3 MAC)
Lvs Northwestern34–7Lvs Toledo21–3Wat Kent State28–16Central Michigan2025: 7–6 (5–3 MAC)New Mexico
New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)
Lvs Minnesota20–17 (OT)Wvs San Diego State23–17 (OT)Wat Air Force20–3New Mexico2025: 9–4 (6–2 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNM 74%MarketUNM 79%
Market 5 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $1,498 traded · as of Sep 1, 11:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADCMU +10UNM −10
TOTALOver 46.5Under 46.5
MONEYLINECMU +310UNM −395
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Central Michigan vs New Mexico Stats ComparisonCMU vs New Mexico Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Central MichiganCMU | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5#105 | PPG | 27.1#73 |
| 23.5#54 | PA/G | 22.3#46 |
| 332.2#112 | YDS/G | 357.2#90 |
| 167.1#118 | PASS/G | 204.8#92 |
| 165.1#59 | RUSH/G | 152.4#76 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 34.1%#115 | 3RD DOWN | 39.4%#72 |
| 0.14#88 | OFF PPA | 0.16#74 |
| 0.08#32 | DEF PPA | 0.10#45 |
| 40.6%#91 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.8%#88 |
| 40.3%#51 | DEF SUCCESS | 39.5%#46 |
| 54.0% | RET PROD | 58.2% |
| 1.16#118 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#55 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −6#108 |
| -15.1 | SP+ | 0.0 |
| -12.8#120 | FPI | -3.5#81 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
University Stadium (NM)LocationAlbuquerque, NM
Capacity39,224
SurfaceTurf
Opened1960
Elevation5,100 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
