Florida International @ South Florida, Week 1 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
South Florida opens a 14-point favorite. Our model gives South Florida a 83% chance.
SeriesSouth Florida leads 2–0 · South Florida won the last meeting, 17–9 · 2008
83% One-score game
27% Cover USF −14
53%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: USF 0, FIU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Florida International2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $4,579 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Florida International vs South Florida Stats ComparisonFIU vs USF Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida InternationalFIU | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| 28.5#61 | PPG | 40.5#5 |
| 30#105 | PA/G | 23.4#53 |
| 397#59 | YDS/G | 487.8#3 |
| 215.4#87 | PASS/G | 275.6#18 |
| 181.6#36 | RUSH/G | 212.2#13 |
| 5.6#74 | YDS/PLAY | 7#5 |
| 35.8%#103 | 3RD DOWN | 46.4%#20 |
| 0.16#78 | OFF PPA | 0.30#17 |
| 0.15#66 | DEF PPA | 0.08#30 |
| 40.7%#89 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.7%#22 |
| 41.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.9%#27 |
| 31.6% | RET PROD | 12.6% |
| 1.31#35 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.30#38 |
| +0#72 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| -14.5 | SP+ | -1.7 |
| -12.6#119 | FPI | -0.9#73 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
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