Fresno State @ Texas State, Week 11 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 11 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k Sims
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge TXST
Model projection TXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ Texas State
Your sims:Sims: TXST 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Texas State vs Fresno State Stats ComparisonTexas State vs Fresno State Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Texas StateTXST | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5#12 | PPG | 25.8#81 |
| 29#95 | PA/G | 18.8#16 |
| 473.5#5 | YDS/G | 354.1#94 |
| 250.8#43 | PASS/G | 183.4#112 |
| 222.7#10 | RUSH/G | 170.7#54 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 46.0%#23 | 3RD DOWN | 36.4%#100 |
| 0.31#10 | OFF PPA | 0.10#103 |
| 0.16#71 | DEF PPA | 0.08#31 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.7%#105 |
| 41.1%#61 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.1%#31 |
| 76.0% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.35#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| -2.1 | SP+ | -1.4 |
| -4.3#84 | FPI | -2.5#77 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bobcat Stadium (TX)LocationSan Marcos, TX
Capacity30,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1981
Elevation584 ft
FAN NEWS
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