Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State, Week 9 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Jacksonville State a 66% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting, 54–13 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
JXST win
66% One-score game
36%
66% One-score game
36%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) JXST
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection JXST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Jacksonville St @ New Mexico St
Your sims:Sims: JXST 0, NMSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat North Dakota State33–7Jacksonville State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonJXST vs NMSU Stats Comparison
| Jacksonville StateJXST | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | PPG | 17 |
| 33 | PA/G | 34 |
| 170 | YDS/G | 319 |
| 85 | PASS/G | 272 |
| 85 | RUSH/G | 47 |
| 3.1 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8 |
| 20.0% | 3RD DOWN | 58.8% |
| 0.22 | DEF PPA | 0.29 |
| 30.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 34.3% |
| 42.0% | DEF SUCCESS | 44.8% |
| 49.5% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 0.98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.64 |
| −1 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| -0.32 | OFF PPA | 0.16 |
| -7.8 | SP+ | -18.5 |
| -8.5#101 | FPI | -15.7#129 |
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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