Liberty @ Missouri State, Week 13 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·MOST radioBears Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri State a 27% chance.
SeriesMissouri State leads 1–0 · Missouri State won the last meeting, 21–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) LIB
Home-field edge MOST
Model projection LIB
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Liberty @ Missouri State
Your sims:Sims: MOST 0, LIB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Missouri State
Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs Arkansas State34–28Lvs Louisiana Tech42–30Lat Kennesaw State41–34Missouri State2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Liberty
Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)
Lvs Kennesaw State48–42 (OT)Lat Louisiana Tech34–28 (OT)Lat Florida International34–27 (OT)Liberty2025: 4–8 (3–5 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Missouri State vs Liberty Stats ComparisonMOST vs Liberty Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Missouri StateMOST | LibertyLIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.6#83 | PPG | 25.6#83 |
| 28.8#91 | PA/G | 26.5#76 |
| 393.4#64 | YDS/G | 388.5#70 |
| 279.7#16 | PASS/G | 195.5#101 |
| 113.7#118 | RUSH/G | 193#26 |
| 6#38 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 40.1%#65 |
| 0.17#66 | OFF PPA | 0.17#67 |
| 0.24#122 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 39.3%#110 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.5%#51 |
| 42.6%#87 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 31.3% | RET PROD | 38.3% |
| 1.49#2 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#92 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | −7#112 |
| -19.1 | SP+ | -5.3 |
| -10.3#110 | FPI | -7.7#96 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Plaster Sports ComplexLocationSpringfield, MO
Capacity17,337
SurfaceTurf
Opened1941
Elevation1,320 ft
FAN NEWS
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