Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State, Week 4 · 2026
GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·ALST radioASU / Hornets Radio Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Alabama State a 91% chance.
SeriesAlabama State leads 16–2 · Alabama State won the last meeting, 41–3 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
ALST win
91% One-score game
15%
91% One-score game
15%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SRS) ALST
Home-field edge ALST
Model projection ALST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from last season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mississippi Valley St @ Alabama St
Your sims:Sims: ALST 0, MVSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Alabama State vs Mississippi Valley State Stats ComparisonALST vs MVSU Stats Comparison
2026 stats| Alabama StateALST | Mississippi Valley StateMVSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | PPG | 5 |
| 8.5 | PA/G | 48 |
| 314.5 | YDS/G | 187.5 |
| 160 | PASS/G | 61 |
| 154.5 | RUSH/G | 126.5 |
| 5.5 | YDS/PLAY | 3.6 |
| 30.4% | 3RD DOWN | 18.5% |
| 0.03 | DEF PPA | 0.24 |
| 39.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 26.0% |
| 32.1% | DEF SUCCESS | 46.2% |
| 1.34 | EXPLOSIVE | 0.72 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | −3 |
| 0.22 | OFF PPA | -0.18 |
2026 season stats and 2025 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hornet StadiumLocationMontgomery, AL
Capacity26,500
SurfaceTurf
Opened2012
Elevation260 ft
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